Bosnia must join NATO in 2022
Time for European Bosnia in NATO, with the Euro and on way to EU in 2029 is now
Bosnia must join NATO in 2022
NATO accession is a condition for EU accession for all Ex Communist countries, as the EU has no capacity to reform the crucial security, defense and intelligence apparatuses and we must be sure only to allow allies into the Political Union, the European Union is gradually transforming into.
In case of Bosnia there is a clear majority of the electorate for NATO accession and Bosnia is anyhow part of the NATO defense parameter as this was part of the peace settlement of Dayton and the basis for the European EUFOR mission. If anybody attack Bosnia, e.g. Serbia intervenes backed by Russia, the EU and NATO will have to defend the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina and we will.
So why is Bosnia not in NATO already, joining possibly together with Croatia in 2009 or Montenegro in 2017 or with North Macedonia in 2020? Sadly, we lost much time as President Obama was against further NATO enlargement and couldn't care less for peace in Eastern Europe. He benefited from the war in Georgia in 2008 and so avoided confronting Russia, ignored NATO and Europe as much as he could, a tragic policy failure leading directly to war in Ukraine and his utter disgrace by Putin taking down the post World War 2 peace order with invading Ukraine in 2014 and occupying 2 regions and even annexing Crimea. Since Chamberlain no western statesman was so distant and ignorant from the brutal reality of the threat of European dictatorship for global peace as President Obama was.
So Bosnia was left to well-intentioned European diplomats without any meaningful authority, funding and competences and so Serbia and Russia rolled back most progress of the 2000s during the last decade, starting for 2012 with Putins 3rd term in power and Serbian nationalist President Vucic firmly taking control of Serbia fully by 2013 and 2014. Once Russian and Serbian power was reconsolidated by the elites of former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, Bosnia was next on agenda. The power vested in the Serb minority by the Dayton armistice, turned peace agreement, turned constitution in 1995 is abused today to block further progress for NATO accession. NATO Membership is portrayed by Russia, Serbia and the minority of Bosnian Serbs abused by Putin, Vucic and Dodik as dangerous as if we in NATO and EU would be the aggressor and not Russia with 5 wars external and 2 Chechen wars internal and Serbia with 4 wars against its neighbors in middle of Europe.
And please spare me with any nonsensical reference to the Iraq war or Libya. If you are on the side of Putin, Assad or Gaddafi or Milosevic, do not bother to read my text.
NATO is a defensive alliance to secure Free Europe against Russian and we intervened against genocidal terror by Milosevic in 1995 and 1999 and this is fair and just and indeed we should have regime changed Milosevic much early and hundreds and thousands would live today and even Serbia would have much less to regret if we stopped Milosevic early, as I actually argued even in 1992. Imagine if we stopped Milosevic after Vukovar massacre in November 1991 by a massive military intervention and all horror of Bosnian and Kosovo genocide would not have happened and we would have a Democratic Serbia today and not one lost to Russia as we have today. There will be a European Serbia again, possible already after the April 2022 events will topple Vucic – but more about that later. Anyhow that is history but let us face reality of 2021 soon 2022 and let us get Bosnia as 31st Member into NATO.
Bosnia 31st NATO Ally 2022
All NATO Allies have recognized Bosnia contrary to the 4 fragile crisis states of Slovakia, Romania, Greece and Spain, which have not recognized Kosovo up to their eternal shame up to now which makes Kosovo as 32nd NATO Ally more challenging. But Bosnia all have recognized and only the Russian asset Orban will pose a problem. But Hungary as a Russian Trojan Horse should not be allowed to block our Alliance. And anyhow all decent Europeans have to focus in 2022 on an election victory of the pro European led by Marki Zay in 2022. And hopefully the last remaining power tool of Putin in Central Europe will be gone, after Babis, Kurz, there is only Orban left in EU and the useful idiot Kaczynski sure and of course Dodik and Vucic. For Vucic hopefully there will be the next color revolution – this time the Green Revolution as he exploits this country as his people in the name of investment in an unprecedented manner. But his control of the Serbian state and media and corporate sector and of the organized crime world is almost complete so that is the open question. Anyhow Serbia currently seems lost so we better isolate Serbia, freeze the EU candidate status in January 2022 and wait for a change in Government back to the Free World. Serbia under Vucic is the Belarus of the Balkans and currently lost for the West.
We need to focus on Bosnia and here progress is possible. As discussed this must be seen in the context of wider Balkans Peace with the 3 NATO Allies Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia in EU 2024 and the Euro for Albania and North Macedonia and Bosnia in 2023 and Bulgaria and Romania in OECD, Schengen and Eurozone in this mandate same as Croatia and we are back on track in Europe. If Czech Republic could please join Eurozone now with new PM Fiala and hopefully Poland and Hungary change to Tusk and Marki Zay and join Eurozone, than Europe will be back on track. And please confront Putin with EU Potential Candidate Status and NATO Map for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova and so we are gradually recovering from the long and lost decade of stagnation and permacrisis of 2008 to 2021.
But back to Bosnia joining NATO 2022. Let us first understand the size of the matter. 730.000 voted in the last President election in the sadly so called Republika Srpska a misnomer and a misleading wrong term from start of Dayton, neither the term Republic should have been allowed for a federal entity and region, nor the ethnic term Serb should have been allowed in multiethnic country, such shabby compromises, appeasing of the aggressor to make peace fast and dirty and avoid the war against Serbia in 1995 which we than anyhow had to lead in 1999 when Milosevic went all in against Kosovo, as he felt emboldened by his easy win with getting half of Bosnia at least in name.
In reality he lost the war in Bosnia clearly by 1995, it was Dayton and the Americans saving the Bosnian Serbs in full retreat in August and September 1995 once the full extent of the genocide committed by the Serbs army in Srebrenica resulted in full backing by the American in the Bosnian Croatian joint offesive stopped by the Americans only miles before conquest of Banja Luka, but the USA wanted peace quick and so the RS got half of the land and this misnomer which was entirely unfair, led to Kosovo war, only postponed the NATO intervention for 4 years and btw if we had done the full task and removed Milosevic in 1995, all the negative fall out of the Kosovo war in terms of Russian KGB roll back in 1999 might have been avoided.
But the weakness of the west in terms of confronting Serb and Russian aggression and the fall back in World War 2 alliance thinking by France and others during the Balkan War had major last terrible consequences by entrenching all the wrong elements in power in Serbia and Russia to this day. I am sure such views are not popular in Belgrade, Moscow and Paris but had we intervened in 1992 we would live in much better, richer and peaceful World and Nemtsov might be President of a Free Federal Democratic Russia and not be shot at red square in 2015. Anyhow back to Bosnia:
So 730.000 voted in Presidential election in RS of BIH and the Dodiks Candidate, Zeljka Cvijanovic got 320.000 votes as President and Dodiks party got 220.00 votes. In last 3 years we had major scandals of corruption, murder, never forget, Justice for David and COVID and massive loss of population from RS to Germany due to the German labor market access regulation and the complete mismanagement of the economy in the Serb controlled areas of Bosnia. Among Bosnian Serbs and Croats any reasonable person has anyhow already a Croatian passport and most who are not connected to politics, have a civil servent job or are major landowners, have left to EU already and most consider leaving as the next opportunity arises.
Banja Luka is just 6 hours per car from Vienna, 5 from Budapest and 2 from Zagreb and 8 to Munich and all are booming urban center and millions of Croats and Serbs and Bosnians are there already and anybody able bodied can integrate and succeed easily within weeks and come back every weekend by bus or car and live in both worlds easily, legally and successfully. Work in Austria, invest in Croatian seaside and visit friends and family left back home on weekend or holiday and brag about your success and be the envy of all Banja Luka as you made it and fools are who stayed behind.
So that is the basis on which Dodik claims the power to succeed and turn Balkans in chaos, well it is really very fragile. His case for secession is also not strengthened by the fact the RS is significantly poorer and underdeveloped than the Federation, the Bosnian-Croat part of Bosnia. Economic data suggest the difference is small but anybody traveling can see a major development differential between Dodiks Empire in the making and the main central part of Bosnia. Sarajevo is now a very dynamic European capital with skyscrapers and dynamic urban growth and making a strong impression in terms of commercial brand names present and tourism and major hotels and everything. Banja Luka, not so much… Clean yes, nice, yes and dynamic? – not so much. Some cultural heritage, some public admin buildings, some commercial outlets and this are the main center of RS and the only really significant town. Outside it is quite empty, many destroyed ruined burnt out house frame from war visible all along. And the southern part of RS the Southern Herzegovina is much worse and very poor and fully neglected, densly forested in east and burnt empty hills closer to coast, beautiful but empty. It contrasts significantly from dynamic Central Bosnia, especially Sarajevo, a boom town and please do not get confused with Eastern Sarajevo the periphery of Sarajevo, which is full of Ex YU residential, and some neglected commercial left over of Yugoslavia. The RS is much visible much poorer than the Federation, the Bosnian – Croat half of Bosnia, which is very significantly more successful in all aspects.
Do not get me wrong, the south and east of Bosnia have much cultural heritage and natural beauty, please go rafting there or visit the Ottoman cities or the site of the genocides committed by Serb extremist or the formerly besieged cities but in term of modern economic development to not expect to much and so not be surprised if you see nothing, it is not because you do not find it but because little happened since Titos death and the consequent bankruptcy of Yugoslavia in 1984 and actually much got worse in these terrible decades of neglect. Trebinje is a nice old city but it was an amazing old town centuries ago!
In terms of highways, both entities have their own, state owned public company building and operating their highways and both made significant progress recently. The Federation builds the really important European North South highway called Corridor 5 connecting Budapest to Sarajevo via Doboj and to the coast with Mostar and with the main southern Croatian port of Ploce. That is great and about 30% are ready mainly around Sarajevo, 30% is under construction the complicated mountains from Sarajevo to Mostar are a major challenge but much is done already. What is missing is the part in RS north from Dobaj to the Croatian border and as well Croatia is not building its part. Croatian terrible foreign policy in Bosnia is worth its own chapter and I made a video about it, please see my channel Pax Europeana at youtube and I will write about it further. But again, RS is doing nothing for the Corridor 5 to the border north and as well nothing in the Southern Herzegovina to link that part of RS with the EU and connect EU with Montenegro and saving the Dubrovnik coast and getting the Adriatic Highway done. But the RS is building a separate parallel highway to the old and now renovated Zagreb to Belgrade highway the RS is building just south of the east west highway a new one which is ready and connects Banja Luka with Doboj which serves mainly for Dodik and Vucic political visit but no other meaningful European transport needs or the real transport needs of Bosnian people and good to the European markets. RS is doing useless wasteful luxury highways for political reason and the Federation is left online with the real staff working for European transport priorities and the only contribution is RS is a blockade of the Corridor 5 links north and south. Add that the northern flat lands at the northern border with Croatia are as flat as Eastern Croatia – Slavonia and cheap to build while the Federation has all the tunnels and bridges to build to connect with NATO Adriatic coast and NATO Ally Montenegro and Croatia. Add that the RS is contributing about 20% of the tax revenue of national tax collection and you understand Bosnia better.
The RS is not working – time for Federal Bosnia
There is too much talk in European media that Bosnia is not working. Truth is that the RS is not working. Bosnia works but Dodik's failed concept and misinterpretation of Dayton and the role of his RS is the real issue. The RS is too powerful on issue as membership of Bosnia in NATO, issues of national strategic security but neglects the real task of regional entities in Europe to end underdeveloped and ensure economic, social welfare of its residents and by doing so the RS has shifted ever closer to Russia and Serbia whose assistance is mainly politically and funded easily abused to benefit the oligarchic interest, despite the fast that all the heavy work real reform and real funding is done by the European Union, sure not enough but by far more and with a multiple of impact compared to the support by Russia, Serbia and China. Such support is easily abused by Russia, Serbia and China, promising much but on such unrealistic basis that little is implemented. Occasionally Orban pops up who is messing up Bosnia by funding Dodik and spreading Anti Islamic prejudices and abusing his Commissioner in all these nefarious activities. Orban Hungary is actually a good example for what went wrong in preparation of EU enlargement of 2004. As I – and many advocated – it would have been better to insist on Federal reforms of the new member states and not allow all them to enter as unreformed centralistic ex Communist states. But French centralism has won out and as most of them were OK when entering despite all of them had their own internal fragilities, only Poland did a major serious reform of internal governance and regional power sharing and what the USA has introduced in German and Austrian constitution post World War 2 – federalism.
Federalism means that all regions share in central decision making via a second chamber as the US Senate or the German Bundestag. The result of the lost debate is state as Romania and Slovakia who do not recognize Kosovo or states as Hungary where one personality has cornered the political market and the rest just can watch in this power grab. There are not sufficient checks and balances without a serious federal governance system and the periphery and minorities and all outside the capital are worse off. If you study the regional yearbook of Eurostat you see mega rich center as Budapest, Bucharest, Warsaw and Prague and the regions often politically mistrusted for historic reasons or minority reasons are often left behind some are left at 50% or even 30% of EU average.
But back to Bosnia. The Federation is quite federal in 10 cantons and surprise, surprise it is working much better. The RS is a centralistic disaster. Everything is possible to Banja Luka, and the rest is skiing in Jahorina. This needs to change.
It is time for a new Federal Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Instead of the 2 entities and overall 18 cantons based on the armistice of 1995 Bosnia needs to be transformed into an Austrian style Federal State with 9 regions. But please first in NATO and once that is done by 2024, we need to reform Dayton to make Bosnia ready for EU membership, together with Kosovo and if we are ambitious with Free Ukraine, Free Georgia and Free Moldova, based on FRG/BRD West Germany precedent – meaning without the Russian occupied regions and to be clear Serbia and Belarus can in present situation not join the EU, ever.
But Bosnia is ready for NATO but for EU the defects of Dayton, meaning the over focus on ethnicity and the lack of focus on citizen’s ship must change. What might have been unavoidable in the fog of war and peace making with Richard Holbrooke being tasked to do what is required to avoid extending the war into Serbia proper and so mainly postponing that intervention for 1999 - there were many compromises made in terms and principles. Now – after NATO Membership 2024 we need to fix them 2025 to 2029. No need to go into the details of the constitutional niceties – please Google it is all online but it is very simple.
We need one single united citizenship for all people of Bosnia and all are eligible for all positions. And we do not need two entities separating two warring people, or rewarding the aggressor from the revenge of the ex victims who as majority backed by the west could suppress the minority. No! All this is the past. What Bosnia needs is the same as Austria has, 9 federal regions /Bundesland forming one EU and NATO state. With 2 parliament chambers, one for the regions, and one for all political parties similar as USA and Germany and Austria. The 9 regions are as well simple to explain, West Kraijna with Bihac, Central Krajina with Banja Luka, Eastern Krajina with Brcko as capital, Northern Bosnia with Tuzla as regional capital and Central Bosnia with Sarajevo as capital, Eastern Drin Valley with Pale as capital, and Western Herzegovina with Livno as regional administration center and Central Herzegovina with Mostar and Southern Herzegovina with Trebinje as regional capital. Same as Steiermark and Graz do not get any fears or fantasies or any new republics and no we need not need Republika Srpska in this context. And none of them to carry the term Republic – that is only for the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina and please no ethnic terms and all open for all and nobody to exclude Serbs, Croats, Jews, Muslims or Roma or Turks or Germans or Ukrainians or Montenegrins, Macedonians, or Albanians – we are all Europeans and Bosnia will be a ethnically neutral EU Member State, as all other EU Member States are today, as we all are citizens of European Union. And no this is neither the road to world war 3 or to new genocide of anybody or a illusion of me, that is simple the normality of a EU Member State and Bosnia will be one and so let us get going. Sure, myself and I were considering Belgium as a role model where history has entrenched that ethnic division between Wallonia, Flanders, Germans and Brussels and OK it works as well and is the second best option for Bosnia but I prefer to recommend the Austrian model of a Federal Bosnia in a Federal Europe. And I am sure all serious friends of the citizens of Bosnia will support Federal Bosnia and Russia, Serbia under Vucic and Dodik will oppose that and will first of all oppose NATO Membership of Bosnia. So how to get it done? Well, we need to make a package deal and a decent offer to Bosnia, no matter what ethnicity.
The NATO for Bosnia offer
One of the key reasons for the current crisis is the absence of the EU membership perspective. So let us give one. It is not so complicated. Sure the racist and Islamophobes in Paris do not want Bosnia in the EU and claims it will be a Caliphate but it won’t be. In reality Bosnia is ready for EU and it actually it is the Muslim Bosnians, the Bosnians who are the most European segment of all Bosnians citizens.
So let us get real, with the deal for NATO accession for Bosnia in 2022
1. Bosnia in NATO 2022
2. EU Candidate Status in 2022
3. The Euro as currency for Bosnia 2023
4. Bosnia in EU Customs Union in 2023
5. Austrian and EU Labor Market fully open for all Bosnians
6. EU Membership as EU MS BIH participating by EU 2029
7. Highway for peace deal EIB buying 49% of 2 highway operators POE
In the short term we make a really good offer and see if the Bosnian Serbs will vote for us for a NATO/EU/Euro future or for a Putin, Vucic, Dodik future. He got 230.000 votes last time and will not get more than 150.000 if we make a serious offer. NATO has already a higher majority than during NATO accession of Montenegro and North Macedonia. The EU Candidate Status Bosnia has deserved already and complicated with most EU regulatory efforts is achieved. The Euro is now the best timing, we did the same for Montenegro and Kosovo in 2002 and now Croatia is rolling out the Euro start of 2023 so that gives the best cover and using same currency will help Croatia and Bosnia, same for Bosnia joining the EU Customs Union as we have since e1995 with Turkey. Open the Austrian Labor Market should be very attractive for the Bosnian Serbs. And buying 49% of both State owned Highway operators should allow for further fast tracking for the infrastructure investment to finish all major highways during this decade by 2029 and similar done for railways. And so Bosnia is ready for the EU by 2029 if as well the constitution is reformed once NATO membership is achieved by 2024.
Jail Dodik for Srebrenica Genocide Denial
Yes and Dodik should be jailed for genocide denial. That was the one best decision of the outgoing OHR of Bosnia and now sadly his successor lacks the balls to dismiss Dodik and prosecute him and deliver him to justice. Rumors have it that the law might even be repelled. That would be a tragic mistake. On contrary we should put Srebrenica Genocide denial under criminal law sanctions in Austria and Germany and all EU and enforce compliance with all Serbs from Bosnia and Serbia or as well those who have EU citizenship already and revoke it in case of denial and repatriate them. Sure with due process but yes for sure to get this in our law as well to show we are serious and so shall all EU accession countries on obligatory basis. Bosnia has it so Bosnia can join and Serbia will not enact it so Serbia EU candidate status can be suspended as I have already outlined in my report about why Serbia EU candidate status must be suspended. Instead of EU Member State Hungary funding Dodiks RS with 100 Million Euros and blocking EU sanctions against him and his policy to withdraw from Bosnia and talking secession we should have a clearer line. First making it very clear to him very that and military moves by Serbia or his paramilitary against the unity of Bosnia will result in EUFOR intervention and if required – in case Serbia intervenes and EUFOR needs more back up a full scale NATO intervention against Serbia similar to 1999 will be the answer. 21 years on and with 2022 technology none of the cruise missiles of the 6th fleet in the Adriatic will miss the targets in Belgrade and European taxpayer will reconstruct everything, no worries, but next time a military intervention against Belgrade is necessary please be sure it will include regime change, military administration and long term nation building to reeducate Serbia away from their genocidal ideology, same as Western Germany was nation built back better from 1945 onwards. This should be made very clear and public to be well understood by the Bosnian Serbs and the Serbia in Serbia both the ones in power as well those suppressed in opposition.
Serbia EU candidate Status should be frozen immediately
Serbia EU candidate Status should be frozen immediately to make sure, we as EU and NATO are no longer complicit with the authoritarian regime of Alexander Vucic. And then the EU should make the peace offer to the Bosnian Serbs and Dodik that I have prepared here in this text. Dodik is well known as a rational transactional dealmaker. He might well drop his mentors Orban, Vucic and Putin if we see times are changing. He certainly has his own interests to be part of the future, certainly the Bosnian Serbs will be better off without him occupying their institutions and getting filthy rich by corning the political market of one of poorest region of Europe but politics is sadly dirty and breaking him off Vucic and Putin and buying him into a NATO deal might be one of this dirty compromises worth making if NATO Membership is the result in 2023. If not simple prosecute him and he will anyhow run to Budapest as Gruevski or Belgrade as Karadzic and well once Budapest and Belgrade will return to Free World – he will be hosted next to Yanukovych in Moscow gated community where all such category of Balkan bullies will end up trying to escape the rage of their people and international justice and enjoy the fruits of their time in power exploiting their people. I am not sure given these choices what will be the choice of Dodik but we need to give this choice clearly to him, best in public and written and let him make his choices. But make clear that all his wealth in London, US and EU and in Bosnia and once liberated in Hungary and Serbia will be confiscated and same for his wife and children. He can buy assets and transfer funds to Russia better fast if he continues his current trajectory.
I hope I covered everything from Federalism, Dayton, The Euro, Nato, EU and coping with the past and a clear pathway to a EU future for all citizens of Bosnia. I would like to address as well the many slanders I receive on twitter during my December NATO Balkans tour especially during my stay in Bosnia and Banja Luka. I am no Nazi nor is anybody I know in Austria and Germany and claiming we in Germany and Austria are all unrepentant Nazis in 2021 is not endearing anybody to be a member of European Union. It is now 76 years after Allied bombs, the Red Army and most of all American industrial and financial power ended this terrible horror regime and occupied Germany and Austria. In the name of our people terrible crimes were committed that taint our people's history and identity forever. But calling us Nazi today is neither true nor helpful. And if we were, why do you want to join our institutions and the European Union voluntarily? And why are millions of Serb deciding to live and work inside the EU and leave the RS and Serbia in unprecedented numbers? Because in our countries, there is the Rule of Law and not the Rule of the Politicians, that is the reason. The best friends of Alexander Vucic in Austria, Sebastian Kurz wanted to establish a similar system in Austria as in Serbia but in Austria the law rules and not the President or Prime Minister. We have now a new PM and people continue to live, breath and work and prosper and politicians do not matter so much once you have established the Rule of law. I understand that is a terrible vision for most Balkans politicians but it is a very good one for the people of the Balkans who will decide with their feet if they want to be free in Austria and Germany or live under the yoke of their politicians back home. For me all are very welcome, a view not everybody in Austria shares but I prefer as well to give people a choice by establishing the Rule of Law in Bosnia and Serbia and in all Southeastern European countries. And it will come, but waiting for decades is not my recommendation, I am for fast-accelerated accession and settling all remaining issues inside the EU. But to achieve this we have to work closer together, reform faster and be much clearer to each other. And if such reforms or openings is than welcome with the threat of war I am very sorry and it shows that the mind of generations is poisoned by Milosevic, Putin and Vucic and their ideology of hate against the West, revanchists for the loss of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia the two main competing ideologically system competing with the EU and NATO and having lost, being outperformed economically and exposing their moral flaws from Afghanistan to Vukovar, from Lithuania, Georgia, Azerbaijan to Kosovo and Bosnia. And all the former colonies of Russia and Serbia conquered during last century have broken away and now the bitter enders of Serbia and Russia, as the core of their imperial projects Yugoslavia and Soviet Union accuse Germany and Austria and American to have imperial ambitions camouflaged by NATO and EU. The contrary is true. There is massive reluctance in present NATO and EU members to include more countries the risk, controversies, costs, responsibility and care obligation such membership in NATO and EU entails. And now the 3rd enlargement round post cold war victory with the 9 remaining countries who were mostly part of Russian or Ottoman Empire until 1918 and then part of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and each single of them with major internal and external issues attached is not at all popular and far from any imperial conquest concepts Western policy makers are extremely reluctant to included any of them any time soon. It is more life long pro enlargement activists as me to are advocating real integration first of the 3 who are already in NATO and have settled most main issues, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Albania and in next step to include the pro Western countries who wants to join NATO, Bosnia, Kosovo, Ukraine and Georgia and than hopefully Moldova and as last in line Serbia once Serbia leaves the Russian world. I see that as the role and task of EU and NATO to provide a security framework and a prosperity framework for all European nations part of Free Europe. But given that inside we share a lot of taxpayer money, data and decision making power, many if not most are not keen to import more complicated countries with mixed loyalties and their own often very peculiar perspectives on regional and world affairs which makes already very difficult decision making close to impossible and paralyzes our internal decision making. I talk about Cyprus, Bulgaria until recently with hope incoming, corrupt socialist in Romania in the last decade in power and a decade of Russia leverage in Budapest since Orban pivoted east in 2013/2014 and Kaczynski schwadrooning about the 4th German Reich and similar bizarre nonsense. Many of even the most pro Europeans are looking stone face into my face when I tell them all Balkans and Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will join and best very soon. To counter such skepticism I make clear that only prescreened NATO Allies will join in future and advocate all to adopt the Euro before to be sure we do not have the same issues as with Poland and Hungary and Romania and Cyprus and Malta. Sure, same as with federalism the big mistake before 2004 was that the EU in Maastricht and following Treaties did not build a real more powerful Rule of Law Pillar with a real powerful FBI style prosecutorial authority able to prosecute political criminality in EU member states and all forms of crime EU wide and we did not endorse a powerful border guard, now we have EPPO and Frotex but for our own reluctance to shift key powers in the union upwards and here Germany is to blame mostly in the 2000s had to work out this children diseases of EU unification inside the political system of the new member states when in last, lost decades Russian influence and international and domestic organized criminality often linked up with small new immature political elites and cornered political system and the EU had no tools to counter this abuse and collusion. As if we did not know and did not discuss all this issues in the 1990ies and early 2000s but many in Brussels are so keen on grandstanding in Conventions then defeated in referendum than to do the real work of building real powerful jurisdiction and law enforcement and border control at central level back when we could. So better shame Berlin and Paris then the new member states who are certainly not without blame no doubt. But the idea of Putin and the Serb nationalists and Gorbachev of the big battle plan of the west to build a big empire of NATO and EU and threaten Russia and Serbia is simply not true and not factually. Sure some in Russia and Serbia and few in Bosnia have to fear a stronger Europe and NATO and EU. Mainly those who have committed war crimes and are committing economic crimes every single day as this will be more complicated in future. And if you want to call NATO and EU an Empire than the Empire of the Law when criminals shall be afraid. But the term Empire means to have territorial ambitions on other people's lands and we could not be further from that. It is those victims of Russia and Serbia who see EU and NATO as their only long term chance to service as free nations who want to join and it few people like me to try to help them and convince EU and NATO citizen that this is morally important and historically current and we have to hear the wishes of the victims of Russian and Serb Imperialism and allow them into NATO and EU. I understand for the imperial elites of Russian and Serbia when they look at the map of the past of Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union and of Yugoslavia from Moscow and Belgrade they start crying and think where are all our beautiful colonial conquests but please ask anybody in-between EU and Russia if he or she would like to live back under Belgrade or Moscow yoke and I do not know of anybody who wants to be back in Soviet Union or Yugoslavia two failed corrupt, bankruptcy terror regimes who killed millions of their own citizens during their miserable periode of existence and brought untold misery over half of the world and kept all world in the hostage of the cold war confrontation for half a century! Good both are gone and maybe nobody will ever be forced to live under such terrible conditions ever again. Sure, some have some nostalgia, fine, in Austria during my youth some had similar confused sentiment to the dictatorship during their youth time with bizarre arguments as motorways and justifications always including rampant Anti-Americanism, some might be explained by the lost glory of their own youth days but at closer scrutiny not a single of explanations by Nazi Germany, Communist Soviet Union or Socialist Yugoslavia always had some good aspects, mainly for the once who survived because their parents are part of the governing elite or at least political so compliant and blind to the crimes and uninformed about all other aspects not concerning them too much or simple unrepentant bitter ends of a tragic follies of the ideologically extremism of the 20th century. Really too bad for those poor leftovers & bitter-enders, stuck in the past, sorry for them. Anyhow enough of the past let us focus on the next year 2022:
Time for the European Balkans 5 and freezing Serbia best in January 2021
Instead of the Open Balkans of Vucic who is facing the 3rd of April 2022 President and Parliament and needs the credibility of the endorsement of Rama and Zaev and the EU appeasing his aggression with opening new chapter now that the Serbs are again in protest now almost permanent since 2018 this time successful blocking a disastrous Rio Tinto mining project, we should exclude Serbia and freeze the candidate status of Serbia and as I propose all along create Balkans Benelux, the European Balkans the customs and currency union of the pro NATO Balkans inclusive Bosnia and of course Kosovo, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia, the fabulous 5 united along and inside EU customs union and the Euro as currency. Serbia with 7 million people and 53 Billion GDP will not be harmed too much, no worries Serbian middle class and once you have booted out Alexander Vucic you can join back in and adopt the Euro and join EU Customs Union, NATO 2024 and then the EU in 2029. In a perfect world and a European Serbia without the grandson of Tito and son of Milosevic – Alexander Vucic.
Bosnia with 20 Billion $ GDP and a 3,2 Million people, Albania with 2,8 million people and 15 Billion GDP and Macedonia with 13 Billion and 2 Million people and Montenegro with 0,6 Million and 5 Billion and Kosovo with 8 Billion and 1,8 million people have 61 Billion GDP all 5 united and Serbia has 53 alone. Serbia has 7 million people and all 5 pro NATO Balkans have 10.4 Million people. It is good to remind all 5 to be united against Serbia to compete and as well the EU that we are talking about 17,4 Million people with 114 Billion GDP 4 output so it is not an earth shattering transaction even if Serbia joins EU as well after the fall of Vucic. And given average 6500 $ GDP per capita 2020 within the EU, NATO and the Euro the Balkan will double GDP by the end of 2020s even better results are possible if all united in NATO, EU and Euro as fast as possible and yes it is possible. So let us get it done. For peace and prosperity in the Balkans and all Europe.
And while writing and reading my twitter feed I saw Serbia buying new Anti tank weapons from Russia ready for Christmas. Please remember that it is most EU taxpayers funding most of Serbian major infrastructure projects and much of Serbia fiscal room created by bilateral or multilateral western donors and with this capacities freed Serbia is buying from Russia and China the weapons meant to attack NATO and EU or our allies and friends we pledge to defend in Kosovo, Bosnia and Montenegro or has Serbia anybody else around then NATO and EU and for who to defend for and why to buy so much arms if not against us and why is Serbia a EU candidate? And Russia is subsidizing Serbia via the gas prices in significant dimension so Serbia buys for 270$ gas from Russia for 1000 ccm compared to EU market price up to 8 ME saving for Serbia, providing ample space to buy more weapons from Russia. So Serbia is for all extent and purposes a Russian client state in the center of Europe and why please continue the fiction of keeping Serbia as an EU candidate country, just to support Alexander Vucic for his reelection bis on 3rd of April 2022? That is so wrong after all the harm he did in the last 2 years for Montenegro, Kosovo and Bosnia. We should freeze the EU Candidate status of Serbia before the April elections and endorse the opposition to topple the authoritarian regime of Alexander Vucic in 2022. A better, a European Serbia is possible and we shall not be complicit with the Vucic regime. Given the Vucic as full control of the Serbian repressive state apparatus, the media, the organized criminalit and the state corporate and most of the state dependent murky business world of Serbia and EU leadership is determined to support him in a vain appeasement efforts and Russian will be fully in with supporting him and the nationalistic hype the Serb public and the fact that many of the best people have left Serbia already I guess Vucic will be reelected in April but let me make sure I will do everything I pray every day he will fail and Serbia will return to the Free European World! And I call very pro European, everybody from American, and Europe to work hard to support a alternative to Vucic and a Europeans Serbia and after the fall of Babis, Kurz it is time for the fall of Vucic and Orban in 2022 and Poland will return to reason as well and we will be stronger, more united and able to confront Russia together during the 2020s until the fall of Putin.
The fall of Putin will come
Putin has threatened now with serious consequences for Bosnia NATO accession, Sweden and Finland and have course Ukraine and Georgia and clearly is against any new country joining NATO. If we have a token of self-respect left in the West, we all unite and join NATO and confront Russia united. All from Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Sweden, Finland, Moldova, Kosovo, Ukraine, Georgia and Bosnia and one day even Azerbaijan and Serbia once free and we will be much stronger, able to contain Russian aggression. If we freeze and are paralyzed by Russian threats as if we have done something wrong and obey the great master of the Kremlin and freeze NATO accession from Ukraine this is major mistake. On contrary we should all get in NATO starting from Bosnia from Finland to Austria to Ireland to Malta to Moldova to Georgia to Kosovo and Ukraine and just do that confront Putin, call his bluff and show his hand is empty as Putin in full economic decline of which he tries to deflect. We need to confront him together and Bosnia is a key cornerstone for a lasting European peace order inside the European Union and NATO. Such a new policy will impress Russia and instead of war with Russia we will have to prepare for the coming transition to a market democracies in a reformed Russia post the fall of Putin. Time will come but now step by step let us get Bosnia in NATO as 31st Ally and so one more countries is save inside long term and can prepare for a EU future, together and united inside the common house and home – the European Union. We will be honored to welcome Bosnia as new Member States and let us accelerate accession now! For European Bosnia, united, federal, prosperous and free inside EU and NATO and with the Euro as currency and all this during this decade and no later than 2029 all Bosnians voting for the European Parliament elections. That is my plan and my proposals and my call to make this happen together.